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Government Spending Cuts: Fiction of the Media and Political Elites

The political elites employ a fictitious approach to government spending cuts, because they don’t really want cuts.

You can see this in the media response to a recent report about the 2012 presidential campaign. The “bi-partisan” Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget issued a report discussing how the GOP candidates’ proposals would affect the national debt. In short, for three of the four candidates, their plans would dramatically increase the national debt. Only one candidate has a plan that reduces the debt. As the graph shows (click it to see in full size), national debt would dramatically increase under the plans proposed by Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, while only Ron Paul would reduce it.

This became a significant story in the news, but did not get the attention it truly deserves. The biggest difference in the candidates is that Ron Paul has proposed substantial and specific government spending cuts.

So how was the spending issue addressed by the media and the political elites?

Consider the Wall Street Journal‘s take:

Alice Rivlin, a committee board member and former head of the Congressional Budget Office, said it was unrealistic to expect candidates to be too specific about how they would restrain spending growth, but she worried candidates are being specific about tax-cut proposals that would worsen the deficit.

“It’s too much, at this stage in the campaign, to ask campaigns to give you a finished proposal with all the details,” she said. “But it’s not too much to ask them to be fiscally responsible.”

Think of the questions a real journalist might have asked Ms. Alice Rivlin:

Why is it unrealistic?

At what stage of the campaign should they give you a finished, detailed proposal?

How can they be fiscally responsible without providing details?

This media/political elite attitude enables candidates to be vague about government spending cuts. Today I had the joy of reading Rick Santorum’s Economic Freedom Agenda in the Journal, which has this beauty of a paragraph:

I’ll propose spending cuts of $5 trillion over five years, including cuts for the remainder of fiscal year 2013. I’ll propose budgets that spend less money each year than prior years, and I’ll reduce the nondefense-related federal work force by at least 10%, without replacing them with private contractors.

“I’ll” is usually a contraction meaning “I will.” Santorum formed a presidential exploratory committee in April of 2011, some ten months ago. He will propose spending cuts? He’s had four years in the House, followed by twelve years in the Senate, and four years now as a lobbyist. By now he should have a pretty good idea of what spending he’d cut. When will he tell us what cuts he’d make?

Also interesting is the questionable math. He says he’ll cut $5 trillion over 5 years. Then he says each budget will spend less than prior years. In the world most of us live in, cutting $5 trillion over 5 years would mean cutting about a trillion a year, so it should be obvious that each budget would spend less than prior years.

But maybe what he really means is the Washington insider version of spending cuts, which means a reduction in future increases. This relies on another fiction of the media and the political elites – baseline budgeting.

So when Santorum says he’ll cut $5 trillion, does he mean reducing spending by $5 trillion, or reducing future increases by $5 trillion? Don’t worry folks. Alice Rivlin reassures the media and the candidates that they don’t have to be specific.

Ms. Rivlin’s choice, President Obama, hasn’t proposed any significant spending cuts three years into his first term. So I guess we shouldn’t be surprised.

If you’re reading this, and you’ve gotten this far, you should demand that any candidates be specific about their spending plans. And tell the media you want them to ask specific questions. Don’t let Alice Rivlin and the other DC insiders hide the truth from us.

Big Government is Bad for Religions

The relationship between government and religion in the US seems odd. The current conflict between President Obama and the Catholic Church about mandating funding for contraception shows how uncomfortable the relationship can be.

In general, religious leaders seem to support big government. I see this in our current and previous synagogues, where rabbis support President Obama’s expansion of government involvement in health care.

Underlying this is a sound religious attitude supporting charity. Most religions advocate helping the poor. But does religious doctrine really advocate that this be done through government?

Religions advocate helping the poor through charity. Typically members of the religion give money to their church, temple, mosque, or related institutions. The religious institutions then provide hospitals, schools, shelters, food, etc. to those in need. “Historically, hospitals were often founded and funded by religious orders or charitable individuals and leaders.” (Wikipedia on Hospitals)

Government, by contrast, takes money from people through involuntary taxes. And in general government does not deliver help through religious institutions.

The unpleasant truth? Big government is bad for religion and religious institutions.

There is substantial evidence that government involvement in charity crowds out private giving. In other words, when government does more, people give less to charity.

Also, when government takes on these roles, it diminishes the importance of religion. Government in effect takes the place of religion, or even becomes the religion. The leaders can become so powerful that they develop a cult of personality. North Korea is a present day example. Past examples include Mao in China, Stalin in Russia, and Hitler in Nazi Germany. Marx famously referred to religion as the opiate of the masses.

There are stark differences between religions and government in how they help people. Religions tend to operate on a very local level. The work is mostly done by volunteers or workers willing to work for less money because of their affinity with the religious mission. Fraud is rare because things happen on a local level and the volunteers and workers share a common interest in helping those in need. And through providing services to the needy, religions are able to spread their religious message and values.

Government inherently tends toward centralization. Decisions are made at the national level rather than locally. Volunteers are rare in government “charity”, replaced by highly paid bureaucrats. Government employees are typically concerned with moving up the ladder, increasing their power and pay, and especially their pensions and other benefits. And of course, government in the US is prohibited from spreading any kind of religious message or values.

What a surprise then, that atheism is more common in Europe than in the US. Europe has had bigger government for longer, and is often touted by big government liberals as a shining example of government run health care. As long as you ignore the looming Greek healthcare catastrophe.

Most government insiders view religion with contempt, most famously shown by then-candidate Obama’s reference to people clinging to guns or religion (in the audio below around 40 seconds in):

While I am a registered Republican, this is not a Democrat vs. Republican issue. George W. Bush dramatically increased government involvement in schools with No Child Left Behind and in health care with Medicare Part D.

Typically support for big government comes mainly from Democrats and liberals. But insiders of both parties expand government because it increases their power.

It always amazes me that liberals don’t see why big government is particularly bad from their perspective – because liberals aren’t always in charge. If you’re a liberal, do you really want someone like Rick Santorum in charge of a powerful federal government? President Obama has been accused of abusing the power of the executive branch. Do you really like the precedent this sets for the next time the GOP wins the White House?

When does big government become dangerous to the people? What are the warning signs?

The Obama administration is developing a plan to fly combat drones over US territory. Hmm …

Troll Tracks

Trolls are an all-too-common denizen of the internet. We see them on Facebook and other places. Recently I had an experience with them on this blog. I wrote a blog post critical of Governor Gary Johnson and his connection with political consultant Roger Stone.

While much of the responses I received were genuine, there were also some that were suspicious. They used the same language and nasty attacks. And this leads to one of the things that’s wonderful about the web. You can be a troll if you like but trolls leave tracks. This blog uses WordPress, and its comment feature indicates the IP address used by the commenter and time of posting to the comment narrator (me).

Here are some comments from purportedly different people using the same IP address:

HP — pederson.howard@yahoo.com — 69.64.222.154 — Submitted on 2011/12/28 at 8:08am
Shouldnt use your column to settle scores. Sounds like Mr. Stone is in your wheelhouse BIGTIME!

Smoke — Rogermanis@hotmail.com — 69.64.222.154 — Submitted on 2011/12/28 at 7:42am
Warren—this is just sour grapes. If the NY Libertarians had nominated Kristin Davis insrtead of you thay would have won 50,000 votes and wouldn’t have to petition their way onto the ballot. You are the one who hurt the party.

Joe paine — Joepaine1@hotmail.com — 69.64.222.154 — Submitted on 2011/12/28 at 7:39am
Warren– You make a living getting drunk drivers who kill people behind the wheel for a living off. Who are you to criticize anyone?

Not only are they from the same IP address (in bold), but they were also posted within about 30 minutes from each other. Here’s another couple:

Susan Greenberg — susangreenberg88273@aol.com — 99.58.192.216 — Submitted on 2011/12/27 at 4:15pm
I read what you wrote defending older men have sex with teen age girls. It was perverted. I would not want my daughters anywhere near you. I’m glad you moved to Florida. The children of the Albany area are safer because of it.

Seth Greenberg — dvader2283@aol.com — 99.58.192.216 — Submitted on 2011/12/27 at 4:10pm
Warren – didn’t you publically call your opponent Kristin Davis a whore ? Didn’t you refuse to share the NYLP voting delegate lists and convention rules with any other candidate before the NY convention? Who is guilty of dirty tricks? Look in the mirror.

Again with the same IP address. And the comments were posted 5 minutes apart. There were also two other comments posted within 12 minutes after the last one, using different IP addresses but similar language and form of attack (references to my work as a defense lawyer, or to Kristin Davis, who is not even mentioned in the blog post).

One other piece of evidence is the purported e-mail addresses. I searched for them on the web and can’t find a single one of them. Here’s a Google search for Pederson’s:

If these were real people using their real e-mail addresses, you would think at least one of them would show up on a Google search. But they’re not real people. It’s all probably one or two cowardly people using fake names to attack others while remaining hidden.

Here’s two more:

DontMissYou — loyalopposition@gmail.com — 67.241.174.81 — Submitted on 2011/12/27 at 3:45pm
Gee if the NY Libertarians had had a fair and open convention to nominate a candidate for Governor perhaps Roger Stone wouldn’t have killed your chances to get 50,000 votes and put the Libertarians on the map. Instead you used gestapo tactics and refused to share delegate lists with the other candidates. You reap what you sow. Even in South Florida.

PeteSzabo — newyorklives@gmail.com — 67.241.174.81 — Submitted on 2011/12/27 at 3:43pm
I read what you wrote defending older men having sex with teen age girls. It was perverted. I would not want my daughters anywhere near you. I’m glad you moved to Florida. The children of the Albany area are safer because of it.

These two were posted from the same IP address, two minutes apart. And notice how the second one is exactly the same, word for word, as the “Susan Greenberg” comment. And another comment (not posted) used the same language as “DontMissYou”.

The image below shows some of what I see in the WordPress comment moderation screen. Please note there were two more that I could not fit onto the screen. Click on the picture to see it in a larger size:
Troll comments on a blog post, with IP addresses and more

For an excellent discussion of tracking trolls, see Chantal Stained Glass.

Myth: Insurance for Pre-Existing Conditions

I’m tired of the myth about insurance for pre-existing conditions. The picture below motivated me to write this blog post:
I am Obamacare - Pre-existing Condition and Insurance

Short story, from her perspective: Her job did not include health insurance. She was diagnosed with tumors in her uterus. Then she couldn’t get insurance coverage for this pre-existing condition. So she favors Obamacare. For a fuller version of her side, see her blog post: I am Obamacare.

One key detail she does not mention: While her job did not include health insurance, she chose not to pay for health insurance out of her own pocket.

Now she complains that she can’t get insurance for this pre-existing condition. But this is a misunderstanding of what the word insurance means.

Please consider this analogy:

Her job didn’t include car insurance, and she did not buy any on her own. She got in an accident and the car was damaged. She went to a car insurance company, and they refused to pay for the pre-existing damage to her car. And this was a nice insurance company, so they didn’t laugh at her.

The more reasonable version of pre-existing conditions is where you have a condition that makes you more likely to suffer certain diseases, but you have no symptoms or evidence of such disease yet. That creates an adverse selection problem – the people who are likely to get sick are more likely to buy insurance, and they cost more to insure so that drives the price of insurance up. Then the people who are less likely to get sick are less likely to buy insurance. Removing them from the risk pool increases the total risk, further driving prices up. This is an area where some economists argue, somewhat credibly, for government intervention to address this form of market failure.

But the current discussion about Obamacare and pre-existing conditions is not about adverse selection or “insurance”, as the photo above shows. Insurance is about covering for the risk that something might happen, not about covering for something that did happen.

This part of Obamacare is about bailing out people who chose not to pay for health insurance. And the blame does not fall only on President Obama and the Democrats. Most Republican insiders are just as bad. Government bails out people who did not buy adequate insurance for floods. It has bailed out banks, car companies, and so on.

Mitt Romney: Principles?

Does Mitt Romney have principles? This is the root of the flip-flopping criticism against him.

One of the main reasons I support Ron Paul is that he clearly does have principles (following the Constitution, and supporting liberty), and I generally share those principles.

Mitt Romney does have principles but not in the same way. Looking especially at his political career, Romney focuses on representative democracy and sound management.

The representative democracy principle is the source of his flip-flopping on issues. Seeing himself as Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney was pro-choice because his constituents were pro-choice. Once he started running for the Republican nomination for President, his constituency became pro-life and so did Romney. The same analysis explains his changing positions on universal health insurance, gun rights/control, climate change, and so on.

If Romney becomes President he would view his constituency not as just Republicans, but the whole nation. As such, he is unlikely to do much about the controversial issues that trouble Democrats. Instead, he would focus his presidency on his second principle.

Mitt Romney’s greatest strength in the campaign is his history of competence in business, in saving the Salt Lake City Olympics, and as Governor of Massachusetts. At his core he is running for President because he believes he would do a better job of managing the federal government than any of his GOP opponents, and better than Barack Obama. With the exception of Ron Paul, I have to agree.