Predictions for NY-21

Update: My prediction for the Democratic side looks pretty accurate. Brooks actually won Albany and Rensselaer counties, but Tonko crushed in Schoharie County — 632 out of 925 votes, around 70%. Brooks was next with 124 votes, or 1/5 of what Tonko had. Tonko got 3342 votes in Schenectady out of 5625 total, or 60%. Brooks was 2nd with 969, or less than 20%. Montgomery and Fulton do not appear to have live numbers. I’ll bet Tonko did even better in Montgomery. And Tonko ran a strong second in Albany and Rensselaer. Geography won it for Tonko.

I’m going to go out on a limb and make some predictions.

First, I’m hopelessly biased so I predict Steven Vasquez will win Tuesday’s Republican primary.

Second, and with little or no bias, I predict Paul Tonko wins the Democratic primary. Tonko has a geographic advantage. There are four Albany Democrats in the race. Phil Steck and Tracey Brooks have the backing of some party types and unions. Darius Shahinfar has pulled together a pretty strong campaign without much of the union/party backing. Joe Sullivan is a wild card. So these four Albany Democrats will split the Albany vote with Tonko, who is also known here.

But in the western part of the district, Tonko will romp. He is so well known and well liked in Schenectady and Montgomery counties, which he represented in the Assembly. He is also known and not hated in Fulton and Schoharie counties. Even I like the guy, even though he’s a flaming liberal Democrat who spends our money with abandon. By contrast, the four Albany Dems are barely known in the western parts. A few TV commercials and lawn signs don’t compare to Tonko’s 20+ years of doing the polka at community events.

So I’m guessing Albany County splits so that no one gets more than 30% of the vote. Tonko might get 20%, maybe better. But in the four western counties, Tonko will easily clear 50% of the vote, and maybe he’ll get 70% or more.

And I’m looking down the road a bit, but I predict Sandy Treadwell will beat Kirsten Gillibrand in the 20th district general election. The 20th is 2-1 Republican. Unlike John Sweeney, Treadwell hasn’t had any DWI arrests, hasn’t been caught at a frat party, and has no wife-beating accusations against him. He’s running a good campaign too. Gillibrand is desperate for money, but even if she gets it, it won’t matter. The gerrymandering is too heavy against her. Treadwell will win and hold the seat for 20 years or more. I’m not saying that’s a good thing or a bad thing. Just reality in politics.

1 comment to Predictions for NY-21

  • I hope you’re wrong about Gillibrand. Treadwell is running a pathetic campaign. All of his junk mail and commercials are full of the same old tired BS republican cliches, and his concern for special-needs kids is politically convenient. I am sure he loves his grandkids, but did he give a crap about autism before they were born? Of course not; so leave it out of the campaign. What he fails to mention is that after the Democrats take both houses of Congress as well as the presidency, he would be half a step above a page in terms of pull, so all of his ideas will fall on deaf ears. What he also fails to mention is that once the Democrats have a chance to redraw the districts to their advantage, he wouldn’t be able to hold the seat very long.